FT · France: Ligue 1 · Friday, 04 September 2026
Lyon 3–1 AJ AuxerreMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 04 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lyon or draw at 81%. Bawler had Lyon at 57%, the draw at 24% and AJ Auxerre at 19%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lyon win
57%
Result
Draw
24%
AJ Auxerre win
19%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lyon's desperate push for European qualification at home against a Auxerre side fighting relegation creates the scoring environment the model flags: Over 1.5 Goals at 78% confidence, backed by Lyon's 1.89 xG and a 0.90 advantage in expected chances."