FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Mainz 1–3 Eintracht FrankfurtMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Mainz or draw at 77%. Bawler had Mainz at 53%, the draw at 24% and Eintracht Frankfurt at 23%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Mainz win
53%
Draw
24%
Eintracht Frankfurt win
23%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.2
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 2.1
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Mainz or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Mainz's 0.71 expected-goals edge and 53% win probability sets up a Mainz or draw forecast at 77%, with Frankfurt's striker Omar Marmoush (28% of team xG) unable to close the creation gap."