FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Malta 1–0 AndorraMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Malta
1–0
Malta win
Andorra

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Malta to win at 61%. Bawler had Malta at 61%, the draw at 24% and Andorra at 16%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Malta win
61%
Result
Draw
24%
Andorra win
16%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.8 – 0.8
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.6
From the match itself

The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Malta to win
Pre-match: 61%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Malta's home advantage and 1.01 expected-goals edge underpin a 61% win forecast, as the model projects them to dominate a low-scoring contest against Andorra."

More from Bawler