FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Malta 2–0 LiechtensteinMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Malta
2–0
Malta win
Liechtenstein

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Malta to win at 80%. Bawler had Malta at 80%, the draw at 14% and Liechtenstein at 6%. The match finished 2–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Malta win
80%
Result
Draw
14%
Liechtenstein win
6%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.7 – 0.7
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.4 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Malta to win
Pre-match: 80%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Malta's home win prediction carries 79% forecast confidence, built on a dominant 2.02 expected-goals advantage that leaves Liechtenstein with just 0.70 xG to work from."

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