FT · England: EFL Cup · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Manchester City 5–0 Norwich CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester City to win at 80%. Bawler had Manchester City at 80%, the draw at 13% and Norwich City at 6%. The match finished 5–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Manchester City win
80%
Result
Draw
13%
Norwich City win
6%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.8 – 0.7
Total 3.5
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+1.5 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Manchester City to win
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Manchester City's home win is the high-confidence call, backed by a 2.11 expected-goals advantage and an 80% win probability that reflects Haaland's role in generating 39% of their attacking threat."