FT · England: EFL Cup · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Manchester United 2–3 Brighton & Hove AlbionMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester United or draw at 74%. Bawler had Manchester United at 49%, the draw at 25% and Brighton & Hove Albion at 26%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Manchester United win
49%
Draw
25%
Brighton & Hove Albion win
26%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Manchester United or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 80%, backed by Manchester United's 0.54 xG advantage and Bruno Fernandes' creative influence driving 18% of team chances."