How it finished
Brighton & Hove Albion beat Manchester United 3–2. Bawler's model favoured Manchester United at 49% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Brighton & Hove Albion 26%. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 5. Manchester United had 12 shots (4 on target) to Brighton & Hove Albion's 18 (5), with 50% of the ball against 50%. Expected goals finished 1.0 to 2.2.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 69%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Brighton & Hove Albion beat Manchester United 3–2. Bawler's model favoured Manchester United at 49% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Brighton & Hove Albion 26%. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 5. Manchester United had 12 shots (4 on target) to Brighton & Hove Albion's 18 (5), with 50% of the ball against 50%. Expected goals finished 1.0 to 2.2.
What was the final score in Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Manchester United 2–3 Brighton & Hove Albion, played on 16 Sept 2026 in the England: EFL Cup. Bawler's model had gone into it with Manchester United 49%, the draw 25% and Brighton & Hove Albion 26%.
What were the stats in Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Full-time: Possession 50%–50%, Expected goals (xG) 1.0–2.2, Shots 12–18, Shots on target 4–5, Shots inside box 6–14, Big chances 1–5, Corners 4–3, Saves 2–2, Fouls 5–14, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 0–4.
Did both teams score in Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Yes — both Manchester United and Brighton & Hove Albion scored, finishing 2–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 59% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Manchester United or draw 74%, it finished Brighton & Hove Albion won (26% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 59%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 80%, it finished Landed.