FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Manchester United 5–2 Ipswich TownMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester United to win at 70%. Bawler had Manchester United at 70%, the draw at 18% and Ipswich Town at 12%. The match finished 5–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Manchester United win
70%
Result
Draw
18%
Ipswich Town win
12%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 0.9
Total 3.3
Actual
5 – 2
Total 7 (+3.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
4.6 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 3.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Manchester United to win
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.