FT · Europe: Champions League · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Manchester United 4–0 Sabah FKMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester United to win at 90%. Bawler had Manchester United at 90%, the draw at 8% and Sabah FK at 3%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Manchester United win
90%
Result
Draw
8%
Sabah FK win
3%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
3.6 – 0.6
Total 4.3
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.7 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 4.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Manchester United to win
Pre-match: 90%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Manchester United's home win is the high-confidence call, with a 3.01 expected-goals advantage and 90% win probability reflecting the gulf between Bruno Fernandes' creative output and Sabah's 0.64 xG total."