FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Maritimo 0–3 BenficaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Benfica to win at 66%. Bawler had Maritimo at 14%, the draw at 20% and Benfica at 66%. The match finished 0–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Maritimo win
14%
Draw
20%
Benfica win
66%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.9 – 2.2
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.1 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Benfica to win
Pre-match: 66%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Benfica Away Win commands a 66% forecast on a dominant 1.28 xG advantage, with striker Vangelis Pavlidis accounting for nearly three-tenths of his side's shot quality."