FT · World: International Friendly · Friday, 02 October 2026

Mauritius 3–0 Sri LankaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 02 October 2026

Mauritius
3–0
Mauritius win
Sri Lanka

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Mauritius or draw at 76%. Bawler had Mauritius at 49%, the draw at 27% and Sri Lanka at 24%. The match finished 3–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Mauritius win
49%
Result
Draw
27%
Sri Lanka win
24%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.0
Total 2.6
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Mauritius or draw
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Mauritius' 0.90 expected-goals advantage underpins an 81% forecast for Mauritius or draw, signaling the hosts' dominance should secure at least a draw."

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