FT · World: International Friendly · Monday, 05 October 2026

Mauritius 2–3 Sri LankaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 05 October 2026

Mauritius
2–3
Sri Lanka win
Sri Lanka

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Mauritius or draw at 82%. Bawler had Mauritius at 57%, the draw at 25% and Sri Lanka at 18%. The match finished 2–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Mauritius win
57%
Draw
25%
Sri Lanka win
18%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 0.9
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.4 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Mauritius or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

More from Bawler