FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Middlesbrough 4–3 Norwich CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Middlesbrough or draw at 79%. Bawler had Middlesbrough at 54%, the draw at 25% and Norwich City at 21%. The match finished 4–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Middlesbrough win
54%
Result
Draw
25%
Norwich City win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.8
Actual
4 – 3
Total 7 (+4.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 4.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Middlesbrough or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Middlesbrough's 0.74 expected-goals advantage and 54% win probability make Middlesbrough or draw (home win or draw) a 79% forecast, reflecting their superior attacking threat against a Norwich side managing just 1.05 xG."