FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Moldova 1–1 Faroe IslandsMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Faroe Islands to win at 74%. Bawler had Moldova at 8%, the draw at 18% and Faroe Islands at 74%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Moldova win
8%
Draw
18%
Result
Faroe Islands win
74%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.7 – 2.3
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.0
From the match itself

The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Faroe Islands to win
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Faroe Islands Away Win carries 73% forecast probability, underpinned by a dominant 1.60 xG advantage that signals superior attacking threat against a vulnerable home defense."

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