FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Friday, 25 September 2026

Montenegro 2–1 CyprusMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 25 September 2026

Montenegro
2–1
Montenegro win
Cyprus

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Montenegro or draw at 73%. Bawler had Montenegro at 50%, the draw at 23% and Cyprus at 27%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Montenegro win
50%
Result
Draw
23%
Cyprus win
27%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.0 – 1.4
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 1.0
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Medium confidence
Montenegro to win
Pre-match: 50%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 85% probability, driven by Montenegro's 0.64 expected-goal edge and combined attacking output of 3.40 xG."

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