How it finished
Morocco and Mali drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Morocco at 73% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 20%. It forecast 2.3 goals and the match produced 2. Morocco had 11 shots (4 on target) to Mali's 11 (3), with 57% of the ball against 43%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 1.0.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 64%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Morocco vs Mali?
Morocco and Mali drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Morocco at 73% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 20%. It forecast 2.3 goals and the match produced 2. Morocco had 11 shots (4 on target) to Mali's 11 (3), with 57% of the ball against 43%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 1.0.
What was the final score in Morocco vs Mali?
Morocco 1–1 Mali, played on 04 Oct 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with Morocco 73%, the draw 20% and Mali 7%.
What were the stats in Morocco vs Mali?
Full-time: Possession 57%–43%, Expected goals (xG) 1.6–1.0, Shots 11–11, Shots on target 4–3, Shots inside box 9–8, Big chances 1–2, Corners 5–3, Saves 2–3, Fouls 4–24, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 1–5.
Did both teams score in Morocco vs Mali?
Yes — both Morocco and Mali scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 29% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Morocco vs Mali right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Morocco to win 73%, it finished Draw (20% called); Total goals — we said 2.3, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 29%, it finished Yes.