FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Nashville SC 4–0 FC CincinnatiMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Nashville SC or draw at 77%. Bawler had Nashville SC at 54%, the draw at 23% and FC Cincinnati at 23%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Nashville SC win
54%
Result
Draw
23%
FC Cincinnati win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.3
Total 3.3
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
Nashville SC to win
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 84% probability, backed by Nashville's 0.74 expected-goal advantage and Mukhtar's playmaking anchoring a 2.00 xG output at home."