FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Nashville SC 4–1 Inter Miami CFMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Nashville SC or draw at 71%. Bawler had Nashville SC at 42%, the draw at 29% and Inter Miami CF at 29%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Nashville SC win
42%
Result
Draw
29%
Inter Miami CF win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.1
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Inter Miami CF to win
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.