FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 20 September 2026
NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Go Ahead EaglesMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was NEC Nijmegen or draw at 74%. Bawler had NEC Nijmegen at 51%, the draw at 22% and Go Ahead Eagles at 26%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
NEC Nijmegen win
51%
Draw
22%
Result
Go Ahead Eagles win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.4
Total 3.5
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 2.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Medium confidence
NEC Nijmegen to win
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"NEC Nijmegen's home win forecast (62%) rests on a decisive 1.10 xG advantage, with the hosts generating 2.31 expected goals to Eagles' 1.21."