FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
New York City FC 1–2 New England RevolutionMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was New York City FC or draw at 74%. Bawler had New York City FC at 48%, the draw at 26% and New England Revolution at 26%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
New York City FC win
48%
Draw
26%
New England Revolution win
26%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 2.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"New York City FC's 0.49 expected-goal advantage and Alonso Martínez commanding 24% of the team's attacking threat make Over 1.5 Goals the model's 78% forecast."