FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 26 September 2026

North Macedonia 0–3 SwitzerlandMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 26 September 2026

North Macedonia
0–3
Switzerland win
Switzerland

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Switzerland to win at 84%. Bawler had North Macedonia at 4%, the draw at 12% and Switzerland at 84%. The match finished 0–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

North Macedonia win
4%
Draw
12%
Switzerland win
84%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.5 – 2.8
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (−0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.1 – 2.1
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 3.2.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Switzerland to win
Pre-match: 84%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Switzerland's Away Win is the clear forecast, backed by a dominant 2.21 expected-goals advantage and 83% win probability that reflects Xhaka and Embolo's creative threat against North Macedonia's 0.54 xG ceiling."

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