FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Monday, 28 September 2026

Northern Ireland 0–0 HungaryMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 28 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Northern Ireland or draw at 65%. Bawler had Northern Ireland at 36%, the draw at 28% and Hungary at 35%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Northern Ireland win
36%
Draw
28%
Result
Hungary win
35%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.3
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.0
From the match itself

The match produced 2.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 73% because Northern Ireland's 1.41 xG and Hungary's 1.17 xG combine for a low-scoring fixture that still favors multiple tallies."

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