FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Norway 3–2 DenmarkMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Norway
3–2
Norway win
Denmark

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Norway to win at 67%. Bawler had Norway at 67%, the draw at 18% and Denmark at 15%. The match finished 3–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Norway win
67%
Result
Draw
18%
Denmark win
15%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.5 – 1.2
Total 3.7
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 1.1
From the match itself

The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Norway to win
Pre-match: 67%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 50%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Norway's home win is the model's call at 67%, built on a 1.39 xG advantage anchored by Haaland's creation of 30% of team chances against a depleted Danish attack."

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