FT · England: Championship · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Norwich City 3–4 Bolton WanderersMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Norwich City or draw at 79%. Bawler had Norwich City at 56%, the draw at 23% and Bolton Wanderers at 21%. The match finished 3–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Norwich City win
56%
Draw
23%
Bolton Wanderers win
21%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.1
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 4
Total 7 (+3.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 3.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Norwich's 0.74 expected-goals advantage and 54% win probability suggest Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence play at 79%, with the hosts' superior shot quality likely to break through Bolton's lighter attacking threat."