How it finished
Bolton Wanderers beat Norwich City 4–3. Bawler's model favoured Norwich City at 56% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Bolton Wanderers 21%. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 7. Norwich City had 10 shots (4 on target) to Bolton Wanderers' 8 (5), with 59% of the ball against 41%. On expected goals it was 0.8 to 0.7, so Norwich City created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 82%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Norwich City vs Bolton Wanderers?
Bolton Wanderers beat Norwich City 4–3. Bawler's model favoured Norwich City at 56% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Bolton Wanderers 21%. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 7. Norwich City had 10 shots (4 on target) to Bolton Wanderers' 8 (5), with 59% of the ball against 41%. On expected goals it was 0.8 to 0.7, so Norwich City created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Norwich City vs Bolton Wanderers?
Norwich City 3–4 Bolton Wanderers, played on 20 Sept 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Norwich City 56%, the draw 23% and Bolton Wanderers 21%.
What were the stats in Norwich City vs Bolton Wanderers?
Full-time: Possession 59%–41%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–0.7, Shots 10–8, Shots on target 4–5, Shots inside box 6–6, Big chances 2–2, Corners 4–2, Saves 1–1, Fouls 11–12, Offsides 8–4.
Did both teams score in Norwich City vs Bolton Wanderers?
Yes — both Norwich City and Bolton Wanderers scored, finishing 3–4. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Norwich City vs Bolton Wanderers right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Norwich City or draw 79%, it finished Bolton Wanderers won (21% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 7; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 82%, it finished Landed.