FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 19 September 2026
OH Leuven 2–0 RAAL La LouvièreMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was OH Leuven or draw at 70%. Bawler had OH Leuven at 44%, the draw at 27% and RAAL La Louvière at 30%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
OH Leuven win
44%
Result
Draw
27%
RAAL La Louvière win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 75% because both sides combine for 2.68 expected goals, with OH Leuven's 1.47 xG edge suggesting the home side will generate enough chances to push a narrow, open fixture past single-goal territory."