FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Olympiacos 2–1 Jagiellonia BialystokMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Olympiacos or draw at 79%. Bawler had Olympiacos at 54%, the draw at 25% and Jagiellonia Bialystok at 21%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Olympiacos win
54%
Result
Draw
25%
Jagiellonia Bialystok win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.0
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Olympiacos or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Olympiacos' 0.75 expected-goals advantage and 54% win probability make Olympiacos or draw (home win or draw) the high-confidence forecast at 79%, reflecting the visitor's limited attacking threat despite home-ground intensity."