FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Pafos 4–2 Dinamo CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Pafos to win at 71%. Bawler had Pafos at 71%, the draw at 17% and Dinamo City at 12%. The match finished 4–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Pafos win
71%
Result
Draw
17%
Dinamo City win
12%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.5 – 1.0
Total 3.5
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+2.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 2.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Pafos to win
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Pafos' home-win forecast rests on a decisive 1.55 expected-goals advantage, reflecting their 2.53 xG versus Dinamo City's 0.98."