FT · World: International Friendly · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Papua New Guinea 1–2 New CaledoniaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Papua New Guinea
1–2
New Caledonia win
New Caledonia

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was New Caledonia to win at 79%. Bawler had Papua New Guinea at 6%, the draw at 15% and New Caledonia at 79%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Papua New Guinea win
6%
Draw
15%
New Caledonia win
79%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.6 – 2.5
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.0 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
New Caledonia to win
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"New Caledonia's away win forecast rests on a dominant 1.94 expected-goals advantage, with the model projecting 79% win probability against Papua New Guinea's 6%."

More from Bawler