How it finished
New Caledonia beat Papua New Guinea 2–1. Bawler's model had New Caledonia in front at 79% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals and the match produced 3. Papua New Guinea had 13 shots (6 on target) to New Caledonia's 11 (5), with 46% of the ball against 54%.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
New Caledonia beat Papua New Guinea 2–1. Bawler's model had New Caledonia in front at 79% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals and the match produced 3. Papua New Guinea had 13 shots (6 on target) to New Caledonia's 11 (5), with 46% of the ball against 54%.
What was the final score in Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
Papua New Guinea 1–2 New Caledonia, played on 24 Sept 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with Papua New Guinea 6%, the draw 15% and New Caledonia 79%.
What were the stats in Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
Full-time: Possession 46%–54%, Shots 13–11, Shots on target 6–5, Corners 8–7, Yellow cards 4–2.
Did both teams score in Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
Yes — both Papua New Guinea and New Caledonia scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 39% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said New Caledonia to win 79%, it finished New Caledonia won (79% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 39%, it finished Yes.