FT · World: International Friendly · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Papua New Guinea 1–1 Solomon IslandsMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Papua New Guinea or draw at 73%. Bawler had Papua New Guinea at 52%, the draw at 21% and Solomon Islands at 27%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Papua New Guinea win
52%
Draw
21%
Result
Solomon Islands win
27%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.3 – 1.7
Total 4.0
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−2.0 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 91%
Landed
Medium confidence
Papua New Guinea to win
Pre-match: 52%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 90%, anchored by Papua New Guinea's 0.63 xG advantage and a combined expected output of 3.94 goals."

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