FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Paris Saint-Germain 6–1 Slovan BratislavaMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Paris Saint-Germain to win at 86%. Bawler had Paris Saint-Germain at 86%, the draw at 10% and Slovan Bratislava at 4%. The match finished 6–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Paris Saint-Germain win
86%
Result
Draw
10%
Slovan Bratislava win
4%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
3.2 – 0.6
Total 3.9
Actual
6 – 1
Total 7 (+3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
4.7 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 3.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Paris Saint-Germain to win
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Paris Saint-Germain's Home Win prediction rests on a dominant 2.58 xG advantage, with Dembélé's wing threat generating 22% of the hosts' attacking output against a visiting side managing just 0.64 expected goals."