FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 13 September 2026
PEC Zwolle 0–7 Feyenoord RotterdamMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Feyenoord Rotterdam to win at 60%. Bawler had PEC Zwolle at 18%, the draw at 22% and Feyenoord Rotterdam at 60%. The match finished 0–7.
Pre-match probability vs result
PEC Zwolle win
18%
Draw
22%
Feyenoord Rotterdam win
60%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 2.1
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 7
Total 7 (+3.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.2 – 3.4
From the match itself
The match produced 3.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 83% because Feyenoord's 2.10 xG advantage and Santiago Giménez's attacking threat create a decisive 1.00 expected-goal gap against PEC Zwolle's 1.10."