FT · England: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 15 September 2026

Peterborough United 3–3 BarnsleyMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 15 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Peterborough United or draw at 72%. Bawler had Peterborough United at 46%, the draw at 26% and Barnsley at 28%. The match finished 3–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Peterborough United win
46%
Draw
26%
Result
Barnsley win
28%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.1 against our forecast)

The match produced 3.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Peterborough United or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 79%, backed by Peterborough's 0.40 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 2.94 that favours a multi-goal fixture."

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