FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Philadelphia Union 5–0 FC CincinnatiMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Philadelphia Union or draw at 78%. Bawler had Philadelphia Union at 56%, the draw at 21% and FC Cincinnati at 22%. The match finished 5–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Philadelphia Union win
56%
Result
Draw
21%
FC Cincinnati win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.3
Total 3.5
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.6 – 0.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Landed
Outside shot
FC Cincinnati to win
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 87% in the model's forecast, driven by Philadelphia's 0.84 xG advantage and Baribo's control of 26% of the home attack against Cincinnati's fragile defense."