FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Friday, 25 September 2026

Poland 0–0 Bosnia-HerzegovinaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 25 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Poland or draw at 71%. Bawler had Poland at 46%, the draw at 25% and Bosnia-Herzegovina at 29%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Poland win
46%
Draw
25%
Result
Bosnia-Herzegovina win
29%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.3
From the match itself

The match produced 3.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Missed
Medium confidence
Poland or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 82%, as Poland's 0.42 xG advantage and 1.77 expected output suggest they'll break through a Bosnia-Herzegovina side generating just 1.35."

More from Bawler