Poland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina prediction — UEFA Nations League · Fri 25 Sept · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Fri 25 Sept · 19:45 UK
Poland 46Draw 25Bosnia-Herzegovina 29
Our call before kickoff
71%
Poland or draw
Landed
3.1
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
74%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
61%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
60%

How it finished

Poland and Bosnia-Herzegovina drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Poland at 46% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.1 goals; nobody scored. Poland had 14 shots (4 on target) to Bosnia-Herzegovina's 9 (1), with 50% of the ball against 50%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 0.3.

PolandFull-time statsBosnia-Herzegovina
50%Possession50%
0.7Expected goals (xG)0.3
14Shots9
4Shots on target1
6Shots inside box4
1Big chances0
3Corners3
1Saves4
18Fouls17
1Offsides0
3Yellow cards5
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callPoland or draw 71%Draw (25% called)
Total goals3.10
Both teams to score61%No
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 81%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

PolandBosnia-Herzegovina
1.7
Goals+0.4
1.4
PolandBosnia-Herzegovina
0.5
Goals+0.1
0.5
PolandBosnia-Herzegovina
1.2
Goals+0.3
0.9

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Poland to score82%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score74%
Under 3.5 goals63%

First half — what we expected

Poland
53%
to score before half-time
Bosnia-Herzegovina
45%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%

Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.4 / match
Head-to-head, last 4Poland 3 · Draws 1 · Bosnia-Herzegovina 0

Head to head

Oct 2020Poland 3–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Sept 2020Bosnia and Herzegovina 1–2 Poland
Dec 2011Poland 1–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Dec 2010Bosnia and Herzegovina 2–2 Poland
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Poland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?

Poland and Bosnia-Herzegovina drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Poland at 46% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.1 goals; nobody scored. Poland had 14 shots (4 on target) to Bosnia-Herzegovina's 9 (1), with 50% of the ball against 50%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 0.3.

What was the final score in Poland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?

Poland 0–0 Bosnia-Herzegovina, played on 25 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Poland 46%, the draw 25% and Bosnia-Herzegovina 29%.

What were the stats in Poland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?

Full-time: Possession 50%–50%, Expected goals (xG) 0.7–0.3, Shots 14–9, Shots on target 4–1, Shots inside box 6–4, Big chances 1–0, Corners 3–3, Saves 1–4, Fouls 18–17, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 3–5.

Did both teams score in Poland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?

No. It finished 0–0, so Poland failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 61% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Poland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Poland or draw 71%, it finished Draw (25% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 0; Both teams to score — we said 61%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 81%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Poland form →Bosnia-Herzegovina form →