FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Portsmouth 1–3 Queens Park RangersMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Portsmouth or draw at 82%. Bawler had Portsmouth at 50%, the draw at 32% and Queens Park Rangers at 18%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Portsmouth win
50%
Draw
32%
Queens Park Rangers win
18%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 0.8
Total 2.3
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.7 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Queens Park Rangers or draw
Pre-match: 29%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.