FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Preston North End 0–1 Lincoln CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Preston North End or draw at 64%. Bawler had Preston North End at 37%, the draw at 27% and Lincoln City at 36%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Preston North End win
37%
Draw
27%
Lincoln City win
36%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 77% likelihood as both sides generate nearly identical expected goal totals—Preston 1.42, Lincoln 1.41—pointing to an open, competitive fixture."