FT · Europe: Champions League · Thursday, 10 September 2026
PSV Eindhoven 1–1 Shakhtar DonetskMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was PSV Eindhoven to win at 68%. Bawler had PSV Eindhoven at 68%, the draw at 19% and Shakhtar Donetsk at 14%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
PSV Eindhoven win
68%
Draw
19%
Result
Shakhtar Donetsk win
14%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 1.0
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
PSV Eindhoven to win
Pre-match: 68%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"PSV's home win at 68% reflects a decisive 1.39 xG advantage, with Luuk de Jong's striker presence targeting an overwhelmed Shakhtar defence that managed just 0.99 expected goals."