FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Queens Park Rangers 0–1 MiddlesbroughMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Middlesbrough or draw at 72%. Bawler had Queens Park Rangers at 28%, the draw at 27% and Middlesbrough at 45%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Queens Park Rangers win
28%
Draw
27%
Middlesbrough win
45%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.5
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Middlesbrough or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Both sides have mathematically clinched their final positions with four games remaining, but Middlesbrough's superior shot creation (1.43 xG vs 1.09) and 44% win probability make a draw or away victory the model's high-confidence call at 72%."