FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 19 September 2026

Queens Park Rangers 2–2 Preston North EndMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Queens Park Rangers or draw at 75%. Bawler had Queens Park Rangers at 49%, the draw at 26% and Preston North End at 25%. The match finished 2–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Queens Park Rangers win
49%
Draw
26%
Result
Preston North End win
25%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Preston North End to win
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects as the high-confidence call at 77%, backed by Queens Park Rangers' 0.49 xG advantage and superior 48% win probability over a Preston side managing just 3 points."

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