FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 16 August 2026
RAAL La Louvière 1–2 KAA GentMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 16 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had RAAL La Louvière at 35%, draw at 34%, KAA Gent at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was RAAL La Louvière to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Louvière win
35%
Draw
34%
Gent win
32%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.24 – 1.17
Total 2.41
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 24%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 75% because both sides generate similar attacking threat (RAAL 1.24 xG, Gent 1.17 xG), leaving a low-variance fixture where multiple goals remain likeliest."