FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 16 August 2026
RAAL La Louvière 1–2 KAA GentMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was RAAL La Louvière or draw at 69%. Bawler had RAAL La Louvière at 35%, the draw at 34% and KAA Gent at 32%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
RAAL La Louvière win
35%
Draw
34%
KAA Gent win
32%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.2
Total 2.4
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 2.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
RAAL La Louvière to win
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
KAA Gent to win
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 75% because both sides generate similar attacking threat (RAAL 1.24 xG, Gent 1.17 xG), leaving a low-variance fixture where multiple goals remain likeliest."