FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Racing Genk 1–1 KAA GentMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Racing Genk or draw at 76%. Bawler had Racing Genk at 52%, the draw at 24% and KAA Gent at 24%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Racing Genk win
52%
Draw
24%
Result
KAA Gent win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Racing Genk to win
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 80%, backed by Genk's 1.82 xG advantage and a 0.65 xG gap that suggests an open attacking contest."