FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026

RB Salzburg 3–0 Mjällby AIFMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026

RB Salzburg
3–0
RB Salzburg win
Mjällby AIF

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was RB Salzburg or draw at 75%. Bawler had RB Salzburg at 50%, the draw at 24% and Mjällby AIF at 25%. The match finished 3–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

RB Salzburg win
50%
Result
Draw
24%
Mjällby AIF win
25%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.1
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
RB Salzburg to win
Pre-match: 50%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 81% confidence, driven by Salzburg's 0.57 expected-goal advantage and a combined 3.05 xG total that suggests multiple strikes."

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