FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Real Madrid 4–0 MálagaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Madrid to win at 74%. Bawler had Real Madrid at 74%, the draw at 16% and Málaga at 10%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Madrid win
74%
Result
Draw
16%
Málaga win
10%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.6 – 0.8
Total 3.4
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Real Madrid to win
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.