FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Real Salt Lake 0–2 New York City FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Real Salt Lake or draw at 68%. Bawler had Real Salt Lake at 42%, the draw at 26% and New York City FC at 32%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Salt Lake win
42%
Draw
26%
New York City FC win
32%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's call at 80% confidence, driven by Real Salt Lake's 1.60 xG at home against a visiting side generating just 1.39—enough combined volume to breach the line despite their narrow 0.21 xG gap."