FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Republic of Ireland 2–2 AustriaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Austria or draw at 70%. Bawler had Republic of Ireland at 30%, the draw at 27% and Austria at 44%. The match finished 2–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Republic of Ireland win
30%
Draw
27%
Result
Austria win
44%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.2 – 1.5
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 1.4
From the match itself

The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 77%, driven by Austria's 0.38 xG advantage and superior attacking threat led by creator Marcel Sabitzer."

More from Bawler