How it finished
Republic of Ireland and Austria drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Austria at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 4. Republic of Ireland had 9 shots (3 on target) to Austria's 16 (7), with 42% of the ball against 58%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 1.4.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 70%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Republic of Ireland vs Austria?
Republic of Ireland and Austria drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Austria at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 4. Republic of Ireland had 9 shots (3 on target) to Austria's 16 (7), with 42% of the ball against 58%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 1.4.
What was the final score in Republic of Ireland vs Austria?
Republic of Ireland 2–2 Austria, played on 01 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Republic of Ireland 30%, the draw 27% and Austria 44%.
What were the stats in Republic of Ireland vs Austria?
Full-time: Possession 42%–58%, Expected goals (xG) 1.6–1.4, Shots 9–16, Shots on target 3–7, Shots inside box 6–11, Big chances 2–3, Corners 3–5, Saves 5–1, Fouls 14–17, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 2–1.
Did both teams score in Republic of Ireland vs Austria?
Yes — both Republic of Ireland and Austria scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Republic of Ireland vs Austria right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Austria or draw 70%, it finished Draw (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 76%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 52%, it finished Landed.