FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Ribadesella 1–0 SD NojaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Ribadesella
1–0
Ribadesella win
SD Noja

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Ribadesella or draw at 70%. Bawler had Ribadesella at 45%, the draw at 26% and SD Noja at 30%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Ribadesella win
45%
Result
Draw
26%
SD Noja win
30%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Ribadesella's 0.33 expected-goals advantage and 45% win probability underpin a high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 80%, with both sides combining for 2.97 xG."

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